Mercedes have set the early pace under Formula 1’s 2026 regulations, sweeping the opening four races. George Russell won the Australian Grand Prix before teammate Kimi Antonelli took victories in China, Japan and Miami. Ferrari look the closest threat, while Red Bull and McLaren are seeking a rebound, with McLaren showing a step forward in Miami. With Bahrain and Saudi Arabia cancelled, 18 races remain on the calendar.
Following the Japanese Grand Prix, GiveMeSport turned to GrokAI to predict the final Drivers’ Championship standings. The AI’s projections serve up several surprises across the field.
Outside the top 10, GrokAI’s predicted order is: - 22) Sergio Perez (Cadillac) — 5 points - 21) Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac) — 7 points - 20) Lance Stroll (Aston Martin) — 13 points - 19) Esteban Ocon (Haas) — 17 points - 18) Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin) — 22 points - 17) Nico Hulkenberg (Audi) — 26 points - 16) Alexander Albon (Williams) — 29 points - 15) Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi) — 34 points - 14) Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls) — 41 points - 13) Carlos Sainz (Williams) — 46 points - 12) Franco Colapinto (Alpine) — 56 points - 11) Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls) — 61 points
Red Bull newcomer Isack Hadjar rounds out the top 10 on a projected 69 points. The 2025 rookie has stepped into the high-pressure seat alongside Max Verstappen and has found the early going tough, with just four points from the first four events. Explaining the outlook, GrokAI said: "Early in the season he may struggle with adapting to the car and the intensity of a front-running team, which could lead to some inconsistent results. However, Hadjar has shown strong raw pace in junior categories, so he would likely improve as the year progresses. Most of his points would probably come from midfield finishes and occasional top-six results, especially when strategy or race incidents shake up the order."
Haas’s Oliver Bearman is tipped for a breakout year in ninth with 89 points. The Briton impressed in his 2025 debut campaign, finishing 13th overall with a standout fourth in Mexico. He has started 2026 brightly despite a heavy crash in Japan and sits eighth on 17 points; GrokAI still places him comfortably inside the top 10 by season’s end.
Pierre Gasly is forecast to lead Alpine’s charge in eighth on 101 points after a difficult 2025, when he scored 22 points and finished 18th, with a best of sixth at Silverstone. He has already banked 16 points this year amid Alpine’s improvement. GrokAI added: "Gasly is one of the most reliable midfield drivers. Alpine may not be fighting at the front, but Gasly’s consistency and experience should keep him regularly scoring points,"
Max Verstappen, a four-time world champion, is projected seventh on 176 points after an uncharacteristically subdued start that has yielded 26 points from the first four weekends. The model anticipates Red Bull’s form will pick up as the season develops, but not enough to mount a sustained title bid.
What to watch next: whether Mercedes can sustain their advantage, if Ferrari can convert promise into wins, and how quickly Red Bull and McLaren recover. With 18 races still to run, GrokAI’s early-season forecast faces an immediate stress test as the campaign resumes.
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